Severe Storms Still Possible Later Tonight....
Notice we are in the potential zone.....SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE tonight.
Large hail remains the potential threat overnight,
The above is courtesy of your tax dollars and the National Weather Service....
And Here is the Wording.....
VALID 112355Z - 120200Z
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM SERN OK INTO WRN AR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 01Z. STORMS MAY
SUBSEQUENTLY BUILD SWWD INTO PARTS OF N CNTRL TX LATER THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS.
EARLY THIS EVENING A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN AR WWD
THROUGH SRN OK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. A DRY LINE EXTENDS FROM SWRN
TX NEWD INTO SRN OK NEAR ARDMORE WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE FRONT. THE
WARM SECTOR OVER N CNTRL TX IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM
1000 TO 1500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL JET HAS ADVECTED A NOSE OF WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ABOVE THE SHALLOW LAYER OF COLD AIR THROUGH SERN OK INTO
WRN AR NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXIST. THIS PROCESS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING FROM NERN OK
THROUGH SRN MO AND NRN AR WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM
NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES SEWD
THROUGH KS AND OK. MOREOVER...THE HAVILAND KS AND VICI OK PROFILERS
SHOW A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WITH NWLY FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD SEWD AND REINFORCE THE PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE.
INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE PROCESSES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
AN INCREASE IN STORMS ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL LIKELY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT ADVANCES SEWD.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES AND UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS.
..DIAL.. 02/11/2008
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