The local forecast, and just what is a computer weather forecast model? Read on...
Our forecast remains pretty much the same for a couple of more days. A bit of drier air is now moving into eastern sections of North Texas and will help drop humidity levels this afternoon and tomorrow. A welcome relief for sure. Look for our high temperature today to be in the low 90s with light winds. Another chance of rain will enter the forecast late in the weekend.
I wanted to take a bit of time to make some comments about weather forecast computer models. You hear many media weather forecasters along with myself refer to “what the models are saying” in our discussions.
"Forecast model" is a generic term that refers to any objective tool used to generate a prediction of a future event, such as the state of the atmosphere. Generation of such forecasts is usually created through mathematical computations by super computers. We (weather forecasters) use the information provided by the output of these models to help us make as accurate forecasts as possible. However, nothing compares to knowledge and outright experience when it comes to making an accurate forecast. In other words people in charge of generating a forecast should use their brains along with the computers to make decisions. A bad habit that some forecasters fall into is just relying on the model’s output and nothing else. I can tell you right now, a forecaster that does that will miss a forecast (also called a bust) many more times than one who uses all the tools available to them along with their own skills. I try to use as much data that is available to me along with my 30+ years of studying Texas weather when making comments and forecast here, but that doesn’t mean I won’t have my fair share of “busts”.
This leads me up to talking about what is going on in the Gulf of Mexico now off of the Florida coast. My forecast for this soon to be tropical system stays the same as stated in yesterday’s comments. I do however want to show you what the many forecast models are "saying" to give you an idea of what I've talked about above. The following image is the latest computer output from several models in regards to this developing system. These are also referred to a “spaghetti models” and I’m sure you can see how they got that name. Each line (or spaghetti string) represents what a particular model's output is. Disregard the one black line labeled XTRP as this represents what the outcome would be if the system were to follow a straight line based on its current direction of movement.
Plot provided courtesy of Jonathan Vigh, Colorado State University. For more information about this graphic, click here.
I hope that this has helped explain a bit of the weather "model mystery" for you. Everyone have a great Thursday.